Page 21 - LUA March-April 2025

If the Suez

to prepare for that, and one element Canal opens up, up a sort of a trusted relationship first.
really is creating strong and resilient But oftentimes, there are no suppliers
partnerships, networks. there will be significant available that fit your requirements, your
Container logistics is inherently a overcapacity and needs in a different country. Because
global business, and what we've seen they don't have the manufacturing set
is that it can be relatively easy to find enhanced price war, up there, they don't have their supplier
somebody who can help you with a sort of, that follows. If network there, et cetera, et cetera. So, in
specific inquiry - be it finding a depot, order to build that up, a lot of basework
finding an agent or finding a trucker. that happens, I think is needed in the countries that are on the
But it's very difficult to find somebody breaking even for receiving end of the China plus X shift.
that you actually trust. There's no This takes a couple of years to be fully
structured information out there around the industry will be a implemented, and we've seen the start.
trustworthiness. significant challenge, Yes. Okay, let's say five years ago, maybe
Regulatory risks and shifting at the beginning of Covid. That's when
alliances, that's a key topic for us. and we'll see losses the world woke up a little bit, said, okay,
Another big issue is geopolitical across the board. we're very dependent on China. We have
uncertainties. We've seen since Covid to diversify our supply chain a little bit,
that there is significant disruption we have to move towards a China plus
in container logistics, particularly makes the whole trade unprofitable. But one or China plus X strategy.
whenever there is a maritime choke as long as it's sort of manageable, trade But I don't think that this movement
point that is somehow impacted by will persist. is already final and finished. So we
geopolitical events. We've seen this with For me, I don't expect volumes to will continue to see a diversification
Russia and Ukraine. We've seen this be significantly impacted by tariffs. of trade lines. And with that sort
with the Red Sea effectively being closed What we do expect, though, is that of diversification again of partner
to container liner shipping due to the trade patterns and trade routes will networks, supplier networks have to
attacks by the Houthis. shift. We've seen this already in the build trustworthy relationships again
And these kinds of disruptions, we past couple of years where we saw a with multiple partners.
believe, will continue to persist. We have diversification of suppliers away from
Trump (U.S. President Donald Trump) China into the remainder of southeast ? Container shipping lines reported
now in office who has a lot more erratic and northeast Asia. bumper profits in 2024. So, what
and unpredictable style of governing. We've also then seen, on the import are your expectations for 2025? What
You have rising geopolitical tensions side in the U.S., for example, cargo are you hearing in the market about
with China and even within the North being moved away a little bit from the operations?
American continent. Just look at Canada North American ports into, for example, I think it all depends on the Suez Canal.
and Mexico. So these kinds of topics will Mexican ports for final assembly. And It all depends on sort of what happens in
significantly impact container shipping. then transport across the Mexico-U.S. Israel and Gaza. It all depends on what
borders. So, these kinds of shifts in trade the Houthis are making of this.
? You brought up Trump and his patterns happen because of tariffs, but a correction this year in 2025 but how
So, we do believe that there will be
style of working. So, how do you
overall, the volume of trade will not be
think tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will significantly impacted. big of a correction this will be remains
impact trade? to be seen. Again, referring to the
To be honest, I don't think that it will ? China plus X is the new strategy Maersk earnings call two weeks ago, it's
necessarily impact volumes. Yes, it will rather than plus one. So, how do a very broad range. It can be anything
slightly impact demand in the U.S., for you think demand and supply is going between zero and $3billion... significant
example if consumer prices go up. It to catch up? profitability or barely breaking even.
might change some trade imbalances Roeloffs: I think what many people sort And if the Suez Canal opens up, there
slightly, but overall trade, and especially of get wrong a little bit is that they think will be significant overcapacity and
global trade, is very resilient against that China plus one or China plus X is enhanced price war, sort of, that follows.
tariffs. As long as they're not punitive. something that somebody decides, and If that happens, I think breaking even
If you put a 500 percent tariff on then it happens and it's a reality. And for the industry will be a significant
something, yes, of course then that that's the new normal. But in reality, these challenge, and we'll see losses across
shifts happen very gradually and slowly. the board.
It's almost like tectonic plates sort I don't have my crystal ball here with
of shifting. Right? Because it might be me, unfortunately, but definitely it's
easy to say, okay, I'm not going to buy going to be a correction that is coming
from this supplier, I'm going to buy this year. Just how much of a correction
from that supplier. You have to build remains to be seen.

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