Container shipping to see moderate growth in 2025: Dimerco

The ocean freight market will see moderate growth in 2025, but overcapacity from new deliveries is driving down market rates.

"U.S. tariffs and shifting supply chains are accelerating the move away from China, increasing traffic from Southeast Asia and boosting Intra-Asia trade," according to the latest update from Dimerco.

"Regulatory changes (IMO's CII, EU ETS) are raising operational costs, pushing carriers toward cleaner technologies and slow-steaming practices, which could reduce effective capacity."

Intra-Asia remains the dominant trade lane, with rising demand from shifting supply chains. North America and Europe are seeing slower growth, while emerging markets in Africa and Latin America offer expansion opportunities.

"Port congestion in Europe is straining capacity and may disrupt shipping schedules, reducing availability for Asia-bound routes in the next 1–2 months."

Peter Lin, Vice President – Ocean Freight, Dimerco Express Group says: "With U.S. tariffs and potential port taxes on Chinese-built or operated vessels accelerating the shift away from China, Southeast Asia is absorbing a surge in manufacturing and trade flows. But without rapid improvements in vessel capacity and port infrastructure, we’re heading toward a major stress test in Intra-Asia logistics. The real risk isn’t just cost— it’s congestion, bottlenecks and a new era of supply chain unpredictability."

Country/region report
Taiwan: US-bound cargo volume has dropped by about 30 percent, limiting the potential for price increases. U.S. importers have already stocked up, and inflation has weakened consumer purchasing power, reducing short-term restocking demand.

"Rates to the U.S. West Coast continue to decline, prompting carriers to implement more blank sailings. European rates remain at a low point but are expected to rise in early April. The renewal of service contracts in April will further impact rate dynamics from Taiwan."

East China: "For long-haul routes, spot market booking prices have continued to drop. Rates for Southeast Asia routes, particularly to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, have slightly increased due to the end of Ramadan and the upcoming Songkran Festival."

South China: The traditional durian (popular tropical fruit) season will follow the Songkran Festival from South China to Thailand, the update added. "The increased demand for reefer containers into Thailand is expected to impact export shipping space, leading to a short-term seasonal rise in freight rates."

South Korea: Shipping carriers implemented a general rate increase (GRI) in March to sustain ocean freight rates to the U.S. and EU. However, weak demand and intense competition led to a renewed decline in rates, the update added.

Vietnam: "The demand to the U.S. and Europe is expected to be weak in April, further reducing the rates, but it is still recommended to book at least two weeks before departure time. Slight port congestion continues in HCM, delaying freight by one-two days."

Thailand: Due to the Songkran long holiday (April 13-15), it is recommended to not immediately dispatch shipments after the holiday as the terminals are likely to experience congestion.

Capacity to Europe is steady, requiring one week of pre-booking (down from one-two weeks), but rates have risen 50 percent due to severe port congestion in Europe and higher fuel prices. "U.S.-bound capacity remains tight, but pre-booking time has shortened from three-four weeks to one-two weeks."

North America/Los Angeles: Delays continue at transshipment ports. "Export bookings require pre-booking with a two-four week advance notice for all destinations."

Europe: Rotterdam Port is experiencing severe congestion, impacting transport efficiency and increasing waiting times, the update added. "Rising container handling demand is putting pressure on terminals, carriers and shippers.

"Some shipping lines are bypassing Rotterdam on certain sailings, offloading containers at nearby ports like Antwerp, Hamburg and Felixstowe. Containers unloaded at these ports require further transport to Rotterdam."

Mexico: Long-term rates for 2025 are projected to be 30 percent higher than in 2024, with shipping companies implementing blank sailings to stabilise prices."

2025 outlook
The Trump administration is proposing a fee of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships entering U.S. ports, aiming to boost domestic shipbuilding. "This could disrupt coal and agricultural exports as vessel availability shrinks. The coal industry, worth $130 billion, may see a 35 percent cost increase, threatening competitiveness.

"Agricultural exports face up to $930 million in extra costs, threatening export volumes, especially in bulk crops."

Dimerco view: "Shippers should stay informed about market trends and collaborate with their freight forwarders to plan for potential changes in proposed regulations."