Africa's air cargo struggles amid global growth in January 2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for January 2025, revealing an 18th consecutive month of global air cargo demand growth, albeit at a moderated pace. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 6.8% year-on-year. However, despite the overall positive trajectory, Africa’s air cargo market continues to struggle, with demand declining by 3.4% compared to the previous year, even as capacity increased by 5.4%. The region’s cargo load factor also declined by 3.6 percentage points, reaching 39.5%, highlighting ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand.

Africa’s air cargo market continues to face headwinds, particularly in its connectivity with Asia. Cargo volumes on the Africa-Asia trade lane plummeted by 26.1% year-on-year, the sharpest decline of any major trade route, signaling a disruption in trade flows between the two regions.

Africa’s underperformance in air cargo demand raises concerns about the region’s trade integration and supply chain resilience. While increasing capacity suggests airlines are preparing for potential growth, the demand decline indicates deeper economic and logistical challenges. Industry analysts emphasize the need for enhanced trade facilitation measures, investment in logistics infrastructure, and stronger regional connectivity to drive long-term recovery and competitiveness in the African air cargo sector.

Despite the current downturn, Africa remains a key emerging market with long-term growth potential, especially as global supply chains continue to diversify. With the right strategic policies and investment, the region could position itself as a stronger player in the global air cargo market in the years ahead.