Container freight rates from China down 28%, worst Q1 in twenty years

Average container freight rates for Chinese exports have dropped 28 percent since the start of the year, posting the worst first quarter development of the past twenty years.

Based on input from 23 liner operators, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reflects the general export freight rate level from ten major ports, according to the latest update from BIMCO.

"The 28 percent fall reduced the CCFI from 1,548 at the beginning of the year to 1,112 at the end of the first quarter, not least due to a record high fall in spot freight rates," says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO. "The SCFI that measures spot rates for Shanghai exports has fallen 46 percent since the beginning of the year, the largest first quarter fall since the SCFI began in late 2009.

"Since 2006, the CCFI has, on average, only fallen two percent during the first quarter and has only declined more than 10 percent four times. The second worst year was 2023 when average rates fell 24 percent between the start and end of the first quarter."

The rates have fallen despite what looked like a promising start to the year with export market volumes from East and Southeast Asia growing 20 percent YoY in January. At the same time, rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope continues to absorb 10-12 percent of the fleet’s capacity, the update added.

Of the main east-west trades, the trades to Europe and Mediterranean have suffered the biggest drop in average rates since the beginning of the year of 33 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

"The north-south trades have seen the largest rate reductions with rates to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America and West Africa falling 40 percent, 38 percent, 35 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Average rates in the trade between China and Japan are the only ones not to have fallen."

The Trump administration’s focus on raising tariffs has increased trade uncertainty to levels not seen in recent years. The tariff increases not only hurt trade into the U.S. directly but also global trade indirectly as U.S. trading partners retaliate and global economic growth could decrease, the release added.

"As the container ship fleet’s capacity is expected to grow 5.4 percent during 2025, freight rates can be expected to remain lower than in 2024. Should volume growth falter and ships return to normal routings in the Red Sea area, 2019 levels may soon be within sight," says Rasmussen.