IATA air passenger forecast 2036: Africa will grow by 5.9%

October 25, 2017: The latest report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects Africa to register a 5.9 percent air passenger growth (regional segment) over the next 20 years. By 2036 it will see an extra 274 million passengers a year for a total market of 400 million passengers.

Interestingly, Turkey will be the fifth fastest growing country in the forecast period after China, US, India and Indonesia. Turkey will see 119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million.

Many of the fastest-growing markets are achieving a compound growth rate of more than 7.2 percent per year, meaning their market will double in size each decade. Most of these markets are in Africa, including: Sierra Leone, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Malawi, Chad, Gambia and Mozambique.

IATA’s report also forecasts 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers expected to fly this year. The prediction is based on a 3.6 percent  average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast. 

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO.

Eastward shift, developing market focus

The biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. The region will be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next two decades. The point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast. We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively. 

Fast-growing markets (all figures based on central growth forecast)

The five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 will be

• China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion)
• US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)
• India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million)
• Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million)
• Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).

Regional growth

• Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.1 billion annual passengers by 2036, for an overall market size of 3.5 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.6 percent will be the third-highest, behind Africa and the Middle East.
• The North American region will grow by 2.3percent annually and in 2036 will carry a total of 1.2 billion passengers, an additional 452 million passengers per year.
• Europewill also grow at 2.3 percent, and will add an additional 550 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.5 billion passengers.
• Latin American marketswill grow by 4.2 percent, serving a total of 757 million passengers, an additional 421 million passengers annually compared to today.
• The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0 percent) and will see an extra 322 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2036. The total market size will be 517 million passengers.
• Africawill grow by 5.9 percent. By 2036 it will see an extra 274 million passengers a year for a total market of 400 million passengers