Africa’s air cargo market: bridging challenges with growth

In the vast expanse of African skies, a quiet revolution is taking shape. The continent's air cargo sector is emerging as a powerful force in global logistics, driven by technological advancement, growing trade relationships, and an increasingly interconnected African economy. As traditional trade routes evolve and new opportunities emerge, Africa's air cargo market stands at the cusp of a transformative era.

The rise of African air cargo

According to the latest International Air Transport Association (IATA) data for the month of November 2024, African airlines saw a 0.7% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in November, the slowest among regions. Capacity increased by 0.4% year-on-year. While these figures indicate current market challenges, they also highlight the resilience of African carriers in maintaining capacity growth despite global economic headwinds.

Africa's strategic geographic position between Asia, Europe, and the Americas continues to be a significant asset. Multiple airports across the continent are developing efficient hub-and-spoke networks that facilitate global trade flows, establishing themselves as vital links in international supply chains.

The role of e-commerce

According to data from Statista, the e-commerce market in Africa is projected to generate revenue of $40.49 billion by 2025. The market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.46% from 2025 to 2029, reaching an estimated value of $56.03 billion by 2029.

While data from the International Trade Administration indicates that Africa is expected to surpass half a billion e-commerce users by 2025, this growth reflects a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in online consumer numbers.

The explosive growth of e-commerce across Africa has become a major catalyst for air cargo development. With internet penetration rates climbing and mobile commerce becoming increasingly prevalent, cross-border e-commerce has created new demands for rapid air freight services.

However, challenges persist, as African nations collectively lag behind global averages in consumer banking habits. Nearly half of adults lack formal bank accounts and prefer cash payments. Debit card usage has only 10% penetration, while credit card ownership averages just 2% across the continent. As a result, online payments remain a significant challenge for businesses targeting e-commerce consumers in African markets, mentions the report by International Trade Administration.

Challenges to African air cargo growth

"Despite the promising growth, Africa's air cargo sector faces significant challenges. Sanjeev Gadhia, Founder and CEO, Astral Aviation, Africa's only all-cargo airline headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, says, “The African Air Cargo market has its fair share of challenges despite the numerous opportunities that exist within the Intra-African market.

Taxes on fuel and aviation services remain the highest in the world and lower the value proposition of air cargo due to the high costs associated with air cargo.

The lack of basic cargo infrastructure continues to hamper the growth of air cargo as over 50% of the airports in Africa lack adequate infrastructure.

Lack of liberalisation has been a major concern for over two decades however the enactment of Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) will promote a liberalised aviation sector which will benefit the African airlines.

Geopolitical risks continue to haunt African airlines as closure of air-space (in the case of Sudan) causes longer travel times, while in-security in certain regions poses higher restrictions and insurance costs.”

“Low cargo volumes and high operational costs in less developed regions pose profitability challenges for Ethiopian Cargo. Additionally, Political instability in some regions raises security concerns for cargo transport,” says Dereje Derero, Managing Director, Managing Director, Ethiopian Cargo.

“Inconsistent regulations and complex customs procedures across African countries hinder smooth operations,” he adds.

Astral is considering the use of drones for last-mile delivery in certain regions in Africa, in addition to offering door-to-door service for its clients.”
Sanjeev Gadhia, Astral Aviation

Navigating from the challenges

Despite challenges in the African air cargo market, innovative solutions are emerging to overcome them. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement represents a significant step forward in addressing regulatory challenges. By creating a single market for goods and services across the continent, AfCFTA is expected to streamline cross-border trade and boost intra-African air cargo operations.

According to the African Union website, the AfCFTA will be the largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organisation, given Africa's current population of 1.2 billion, projected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2050. It aims to boost trade among African nations, which currently stands at 15-18% while enhancing the ability of African companies to access and compete in global markets.

“Ethiopian Cargo aims to capitalise on the AfCFTA and SAATM by expanding its network and improving connectivity to drive growth in intra-African trade,” says Derero of Ethiopian Cargo. “Through promo rates and strategic pricing, Ethiopian Cargo will offer competitive, cost-effective services to stimulate cross-border trade. This will make air freight more affordable, encouraging businesses to trade more freely across borders.”

“Astral has over 25 years of experience in the intra-African air-cargo market and remains confident with the growth of air-cargo within Africa, after the enactment of the AfCFTA and SAATM,” says Gadhia of Astral Aviation.

Infrastructure development is being addressed through various public-private partnerships. The African Development Bank has committed substantial resources to airport modernisation projects across the continent. Private investors, particularly from the Middle East and China, have shown increasing interest in developing cargo facilities at key African airports.

This disparity is evident in commercial air freight of Africa, which serves as a vital economic lifeline for landlocked countries and plays a key role in transporting perishable goods. Despite experiencing significant growth over the past decade from 2.2 million tonnes per kilometre in 2012 to 4.2 million tonnes per kilometre in 2021. Africa's air freight levels still fall considerably behind those of the Middle East (34 million tonnes per kilometre) and Asia (65 million tonnes per kilometre).

According to the International Civil Aviation Organisation, freight and passenger traffic in Africa is expected to increase annually by 4.3% and 3.9% respectively until 2045, higher than the world average. Higher volumes of cargo and numbers of passengers should improve the economics of the system, making it more attractive to potential investors and injecting revenue to finance much-needed improvements in telecommunication equipment, air cargo warehousing, and meteorology facilities, among others.

Notable projects include the construction of new airports in East Africa, such as Uganda’s Kabaale International Airport in Hoima and Rwanda’s Bugesera International Airport. Several other countries are also exploring airport privatisation efforts to modernise and expand existing facilities, mentions the Africa Finance Corporation report.

“Astral Aviation promotes the consolidation of cargo in Africa around 3 Hubs, notably Nairobi, Johannesburg and Lome, instead of a single hub strategy, which enables air-cargo to move to over 70% of the continent's 53 countries. In 2025, Astral Aviation will launch scheduled services from its Johannesburg hub via its JV with SUID Cargo.”

Highlighting opportunities in Africa's air cargo market, Derero of Ethiopian Cargo says, “Expanding services to underserved markets can unlock new trade opportunities, particularly in agriculture and natural resources.”

Ethiopian Cargo plans to leverage the AfCFTA and SAATM by expanding its network and providing enhanced connectivity to boost intra-African trade.”
Dereje Derero, Ethiopian Cargo

Demographic drivers and market potential

Africa's rapidly expanding middle class is becoming a significant driver of air cargo demand. With the continent's middle-class population growing at an unprecedented rate, consumption patterns are shifting toward higher-value goods and international products. This demographic transformation is creating new opportunities for air freight, particularly in urban centres where middle-class consumers increasingly demand rapid delivery of imported goods and premium products.

According to the latest United Nations report Africa’s economic growth is forecast to improve from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025 and further to 4.0% in 2026.

“The rise of middle-class consumers in Africa presents new opportunities for Ethiopian Cargo to provide fast, reliable logistics services. By facilitating imports and exports, Ethiopian Cargo can support local industries and contribute to broader economic development across Africa,” says Derero of Ethiopian Cargo.

Specialised cargo services

The growth of Africa's air cargo market has led to the development of specialised services catering to specific industry needs.

The transportation of pharmaceutical products, particularly vaccines, has become a vital segment of the air cargo industry. Recently, Astral Aviation, in collaboration with the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), delivered 1.1 million doses of cholera vaccines to South Sudan.

Additionally, many African carriers have secured IATA's Centre of Excellence for Independent Validators in Pharmaceutical Logistics (CEIV Pharma) certification. Ethiopian Airlines has also joined this list, earning IATA CEIV Pharma accreditation as both an airline and a ground-handling agent.

Supporting agriculture with air cargo

Air cargo has been a lifeline for Africa's agricultural sector, enabling farmers to access international markets through advanced cold-chain solutions. From North African citrus fruits to West African fresh produce and East African horticultural products, air freight is essential in connecting producers to global markets.

However, the sector continues to face challenges such as currency fluctuations and global shipping disruptions. These challenges were evident in 2024 when Kenya's horticulture exports, including flowers and vegetables, dropped to $1.06 billion from $1.21 billion in 2023. This data was provided by Kipronoh Ronoh Paul, Principal Secretary of the State Department for Agriculture in the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Kenya.

Despite these headwinds, the agricultural sector remains an important component of Africa's air cargo industry, with exporters adapting their strategies to maintain international market access.

The coming years will likely see African air cargo hubs strengthen their position in global logistics, building on the continent's strategic location and growing technological capabilities. As regional trade barriers fall and infrastructure improves, Africa's air cargo sector is positioning itself as a vital link in international supply chains.